Argentine lemons in 17 kg cartons landed at Philadelphia, the main port of entry for Southern Hemisphere fruit, were quoted at $36 to $38 a carton for the most-traded sizes in early July and had fallen to $22 to $24 by 26 August, US Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Marketing Service reported. The market was described as "supply fairly heavy" and "demand fairly light".

The price break followed a surge in arrivals. US fresh-lemon imports reached 23,832 tonnes in June, the second-largest June since 2010, behind 2023, of which Argentina supplied 68 per cent, according to US Census data accessed via Cropli.

Across May and June, Argentine shipments rose 55 per cent and Chilean shipments 162 per cent, leaving the two Southern Hemisphere origins with 89 per cent of the US import market.

The June figure is only the start of the recorded the import surge: US trade data run through June, while the flood importers describe began around the middle of July and will not show in customs figures until early September.

Californian lemons, by contrast, have held their value throughout, according to USDA shipping-point data.

In the same USDA report, California first-grade lemons were quoted at $32.50 to $41.60 a carton on "supply fairly light" and a "steady" market. That is a premium of roughly $15 to $18 a carton over the imported fruit, in cartons of broadly similar weight.

California's second grade, Shippers Choice, was quoted at $30.75 to $33.60 on the same sizes.

The cargoes arrived as importers stocked to cover shortages. "Close to double the volume originally planned arrived in a short amount of time," Ronnie Cohen of Vision Global Group told FreshPlaza, describing programmes built with growers in Argentina and Chile to supplement supply. "The market went from a supply shortage to a situation of oversupply in just a few weeks. This really negatively impacted the spot market while inventories ballooned."

G.T. Parris of Seald Sweet had set out the same risk in May. Importers were "getting adequate enough supplies to cover programs and have fruit leftover for the spot market", he told FreshPlaza on 21 May. He expected spot values to hold in the $30s — "if Argentina stays with the projected numbers and doesn't oversupply". Argentine 95s were quoted at $22 to $24 on 26 August.

Global lemon supply has tightened as Türkiye, one of the largest producers, saw its crop fall from 2.33mn tonnes to 1.1mn over two seasons, according to a USDA attaché report. Heat during the spring 2024 bloom cut it 26 per cent, the report said, and frost in March and April 2025 a further 35 per cent.

Spanish output was limited after two short crops, while California's season also ended early. US buyers turned to the Southern Hemisphere to fill the gap.

The overshoot was cheap for Argentina to supply because fresh export is a thin residual of a much larger juice industry. Argentina grows about 1.9mn tonnes of lemons a year, of which 1.49mn tonnes go to the crushers and only 210,000 tonnes are exported fresh, USDA's Buenos Aires post estimated in December.

A reallocation considered small for Tucumán, the northern province that grows some 80 per cent of the crop, is a flood in a US market whose monthly lemon imports run from about 20,000 to 50,000 tonnes in season.

Chile overtook Argentina as the largest Southern Hemisphere supplier of fresh lemons to the US in 2025, shipping 56,820 tonnes between June and October against Argentina's 47,076 tonnes. Argentina had led by 24,445 tonnes over the same months of 2024.

Cohen expects the US market to clear by the end of September or early October. "People are finally starting to put the brakes on and with domestic production expected to be delayed, the market will ultimately change again," he said. He was "hopeful the situation has turned around by the time the industry meets in Orlando for IFPA", the produce trade's annual US show.

Grower-level prices are very low while retailers have held shelf prices high, FreshPlaza reported. Re-adjusting them, Cohen said, is "the most sustainable way of doing business and will allow the farmer to eat and be able to continue growing a great product."

Limoneira, the California lemon grower and packer that markets through Sunkist Growers, sold 1,028,000 cartons of fresh lemons at an average $16.63 in the quarter to 30 April. A year earlier it sold 1,357,000 cartons at $14.52 — a higher price on a quarter less fruit, in the tight market that preceded the flip.

Its lemon revenues "are expected to peak in the third and fourth quarters", the company told investors in a stock exchange filing: May to October, the months in which the imported price broke.

Limoneira also owns 51 per cent of Trapani Fresh, a lemon orchard in Argentina.